Iran & The Middle East

The Economist has a good piece about how the departure of American troops has led to a return to sectarian conflict. Will Iraq split up along ethnic / religious lines ? Dec 31st 2011 The Economist ON DECEMBER 18th America withdrew from Iraq, as the last convoy headed south into Kuwait, where around 4,000 of its troops will remain for an undisclosed length of time. An optimistic Iraqi government had recently begun to remove some of the capital’s checkpoints and blast-walls, easing traffic and boosting morale. But the better mood did not last long. On December 22nd at least a dozen car bombs exploded within two hours of each other in Baghdad, killing more than 60 people and injuring another 200—one of the highest death tolls of the year. With security as patchy as ever and politics entering a new phase of sectarian hatred, few Iraqis now think the American withdrawal heralds a joyful new era. Some even wonder whether, without a ring-holding American military presence, the country

Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, December 28, 2011 THE RACE FOR IRAN Throughout our work on U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran, one of the more fundamental themes is the corrosive impact that America’s post-Cold War quest for unadulterated hegemony in the Middle East has had on the strategic calculations of successive U.S. administrations (Democratic and Republican) and, by extension, on U.S. standing and influence in this vitally important region. Instead of dealing soberly and effectively with the Middle East’s complex political and security dynamics and defending its legitimate interests there, the United States has, for the past two decades, tried to coerce political outcomes across the region, with the goal of bringing it under a U.S.-led, highly militarized political and security “umbrella.” Of course, the United States was certainly not above trying to do this sort of thing before the end of the Cold War (witness the CIA’s 1953 coup in Iran). But th

According to the Wall Street Journal's Market Watch, "between the implications of the most recent Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) conference on Dec. 14 and the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) concern regarding Iran’s nuclear program, January is poised to open the New Year (at least in the energy markets) with a bang." As tensions build up in the Persian Gulf about possible oil embargo on Iran, we are heading toward a very uncertain future with Iran. According to this commentary, "the coming year may resemble developments of 2003."

Date: December 26 2011 Dr. Mohammed Akacem Metropolitan State College of Denver Faculty Director, Kuwait Study Abroad program The University of Colorado Boulder is offering students at all universities the amazing opportunity to earn 6 credits of coursework on an intensive study abroad program to Kuwait. This 3-week summer Global Seminar gives students an inside look at the economy, politics & society in the Middle East through meetings and visits with bankers, politicians, oil executives, families, and students. The small group size allows for one-on-one interaction with these experts, giving students a chance to make connections in their field of interest. http://studyabroad.colorado.edu/?go=KuwaitGS Students are welcome to contact Sarah Westmoreland (Program manager at CU-Boulder Study Abroad Programs) with questions or for additional information: Sarah.Westmoreland@colorado.edu.

The Washington Quarterly Winter 2012

Current History, January 2012

The UCLA Program on Central Asia is pleased to announce that it will be holding a conference on language and identity in Central Asia on May 4-5, 2012. We are seeking the participation of graduate students, postdoctoral scholars, and junior faculty to take part in a two-day workshop to present and discuss their work in this area. These participants will be joining a group of four invited established scholars in the field and faculty discussants. CONFERENCE: Language and Identity in Central Asia, UCLA, May 4-5,

According to Greg Gause, a University of Vermont's Political Scientist, "Four important regionwide trends have become clear one year into the upheavals of the Arab world. The first is the increasing sense that there is no viable alternative to democratic politics (if not completely democratic) as the basis for regime legitimacy and stability. This does not mean the triumph of democracy in the Arab world, much less the triumph of liberal democracy. It does not necessarily mean stable governments; in many cases, it means just the opposite. Nor does it necessarily mean “good government.” But it does mean, even in nondemocratic regimes, greater moves toward elected representative bodies. Authoritarian regimes will be more subject to the pressures of public opinion and less stable and predictable than in the past." You can read the whole article here: Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There! by F. GREGORY GAUSE III DEC. 21, 2011 As the upheavals that have made 2011 a his

Financial Times December 21, 2011 3:58 pm By Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran Iran's currency has plunged almost 10 per cent to a record low against the US dollar in recent days amid concerns over the impact of international sanctions and speculation the government is devaluing the rial to help narrow a massive budget deficit. One US dollar bought 15,300 rials on the open market on Wednesday, from 13,800 on Saturday. The Iranian currency is down 30 per cent against the dollar this year. But the 9.8 per cent decline in just a few days is fueling fresh anxiety, not only among ordinary Iranians worried about the sharp fall in the value of their rial-based savings but also among businessmen who say the currency volatility has made their lives difficult. Over the past decade, Iran’s Central Bank, which channels more than 90 per cent of hard currency into the local market, has employed a managed float system to support a single rate against hard currencies, notably the US dollar.

It was a year ago this past Saturday that a fruit salesman named Mohammed Bouazizi put himself on fire in Tunisia bringing attention to the rising tide of popular revolutions about to spread from Tunisia to Egypt to Libya to Yemen and Bahrain. Journalists started comparing the uprisings to protests against Eastern European regimes of 1989, and it seemed logical to expect similar outcome for the Middle East. However, as this article by Marc Fisher points out, the realities of this so-called Arab Spring are very different, and while it seems to have had results in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, others like Bashar Assad of Syria and the Bahrain's ruling family have decided to fight to the end. No one knows who the killings in Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain will end, and if there will be a peaceful transition in these countries. Arab Spring yields different outcomes in Bahrain, Egypt and Libya By Marc Fisher December 20, 2011 The Washington Post At the dawn of the first winter a

Yale Global Online: Iran Frustrated Attempting to Take Charge of Arab Rising

The New York Times' columnist Nicholas Kristof has a very good piece in today's New York Times about how a pro-American regime in Bahrain is using American-made weapons to crush the pro-democracy uprising in the country. Even though "people here admire much about America and welcomed me into their homes, but there is also anger that the tear gas shells that they sweep off the streets each morning are made by a Pennsylvania company, NonLethal Technologies." America's contradictory policies of voicing support for democracy while at the same time providing weapons of repression will only undermine the credibility of Washington. Repressing Democracy, With American Arms December 17, 2011 By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF SITRA, Bahrain WHEN President Obama decides soon whether to approve a $53 million arms sale to our close but despotic ally Bahrain, he must weigh the fact that America has a major naval base here and that Bahrain is a moderate, modernizing bulwark again

"Reckoning the costs of war in Iraq will take years, especially the impact on US prestige and power in the world. Historians, political scientists, and economists will write doctoral dissertations on the subject, and some will devote careers to calculating and analyzing the data and each others’ conclusions – as continues to be the case with the Vietnam War. Analysts Matthew Duss and Peter Juul of the Center for American Progress have taken a first cut at calculating the costs of the American war in Iraq." The center is a progressive, nonprofit think tank and advocacy organization in Washington, founded in 2003 by former Clinton administration chief of staff John Podesta. Iraq ledger: War by the numbers The Christian Science Monitor By Brad Knickerbocker December 17, 2011 Here are some of the main points: Human Costs Coalition deaths totaled 4,803, of which 4,484 (93 percent) were American. The number of Americans wounded was

According to Michael Theodoulou, Iran has launched a charm offensive with key regional powers in order to reduce tensions and conflict. It provides a list of initiatives undertaken by Tehran recently. The National: Iran tries to mend fences in region Michael Theodoulou (Foreign Correspondent) and Ola Salem Dec 16, 2011 Iran has launched a charm offensive to ease tensions with key regional powers and US allies amid increasingly tough sanctions and growing isolation over its nuclear programme. The intelligence minister, Heidar Moslehi, made a rare trip to Saudi Arabia to deny “absurd” and “baseless” US claims that Tehran planned to assassinate the kingdom’s ambassador to Washington. Meanwhile the foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, assured Turkey that threats by some Iranian political and military figures to strike at Nato missile bases in Turkey if Iran is attacked by Israel or the US did not represent official policy. And the foreign undersecretary, Dr Hossain Amirabd